…despite strong output at 93.62% capacity, Dangote’s domestic supply falls to 34.2 ML/D for third month
Oredola Adeola
Nigeria’s total petrol supply rose to 40.1 million litres per day (ML/D) in March 2026, up from 39.5 ML/D recorded in February 2026 with domestic supply accounting for 34.2 ML/D and imports contributing 5.9ML/D.
This indicates a recovery in imported petrol volumes in Nigeria, notwithstanding the limited number of licences issued within the period.
The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) revealed this in its latest factsheet on the state of the midstream and downstream sector and obtained by Advisors Reports.
The data revealed a modest improvement in supply during the review period, even as Nigeria remains heavily reliant on refined products from Dangote refinery, amid global oil market pressures that have driven up refined product prices.
Meanwhile, the factsheet showed that production from the Dangote Refinery recorded output of 48.2 ML/D in March, with an average capacity utilisation of 93.62 per cent.
However, Dangote refinery’s contribution to domestic supply has weakened for the third straight month, declining to 34.2 ML/D in March, compared with 36 ML/D in February and 40.1 ML/D in January 2026.
Meanwhile, petrol import volumes on the other hand nearly doubled on a month-on-month basis, rising to 5.9 ML/D from 3 ML/D in February.
This increase came amid constrained licensing conditions, suggesting a measured re-entry of importers into the market to bridge supply gaps.
On the demand side, domestic consumption eased significantly, dropping to 47.3 ML/D in March from 56.9 ML/D in February.
The decline in consumption, alongside the uptick in supply, indicates a relative easing of market pressure during the review period this is just as average pump price was 1,249.01/ l in Lagos, 1,286.81/ l in Abuja and 1,280.43/L in Enugu.
Overall, the March data showed that imports remain a critical buffer in stabilising supply, as particularly in periods of fluctuating production and demand, amidst the country’s growing dependence on domestic refining capacity.
A supply-demand gap was recorded in March 2026, as total PMS supply of 40.1 ML/D fell short of consumption, which stood at 47.3 ML/D, signaling potential strain on inventories and downstream distribution channels.
On a year-on-year basis, Nigeria’s average daily PMS supply declined sharply to 40.1 ML/D in March 2026 from 51.6 ML/D in March 2025, representing a drop of 11.5 ML/D, or about 22.3 per cent.
However, on a month-on-month basis, supply showed a modest recovery from 39.5 ML/D recorded in February 2026, largely supported by increased petrol imports during the period.
