… as Brent crude extends rally to $84.41/bbl on Thursday, approaches $90/bbl
… MEMAN predicts pump price to hit ₦1,100/L by April 2026 if current trends persist
Oredola Adeola
A widening price differential of about ₦64–₦65 per litre has emerged between domestic refinery rates and import benchmarks in Nigeria’s petrol market.
Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s gantry price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) currently stands at ₦874 per litre, compared with the landed cost of imported petrol at ₦809.36 per litre at the Nigerian Pipeline and Storage Company (NPSC) New Oil Jetty and ₦809.38 per litre at the Apapa Single Point Mooring (ASPM) jetty in Apapa.
This is contained in the latest Energy Bulletin released by the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) Competency Centre and obtained by Advisors Reports.
This development is attributed to surging global crude oil prices driven by escalating geopolitical tensions surrounding the US–Israel–Iran conflict, which has pushed Brent crude oil on an upward trajectory from around $70 per barrel at the onset of the war to above $80 per barrel.
Meanwhile, the MEMAN’s data showed that petrol delivery into storage tanks at the Nigerian Petroleum Special Company (NPSC) and Apapa Single Point Mooring (ASPM) Jetties in Apapa showing an average 30-day availability of ₦733.71 per litre.
The data also revealed that the development is expected to push retail pump prices above N900 per litre in the coming days, particularly due to the intensifying US–Israel–Iran conflict.
It emphasised that the increase triggered temporary pauses in sales by several private depots during the weekend, as operators recalibrate their pricing structures to align with the new market realities.
The downstream sector is expected to continue grappling with heightened volatility as global crude prices remain on the rise, with Brent crude peaking at $80.62 per barrel on Tuesday, March 3, and extending its rally to about $84.41 per barrel by Thursday, March 5, amid escalating geopolitical tensions.
MEMAN warned that sustained crude price increases toward the $90 per barrel threshold could exert further pressure on domestic petrol costs.
Under such a scenario, MEMAN projected that the pump prices may approach N1,100 per litre by April 2026 if current trends persist.
Recall that Dangote Petroleum Refinery had earlier, in February, adopted a revised distribution framework with major marketers, guaranteeing nationwide channel supply of petrol.
Under that arrangement, the refinery promised to deliver between 60 and 65 million litres daily through major marketing companies to meet Nigeria’s estimated average daily petrol consumption, which stands between 50 and 60 million litres.
Advisers Reports indicated that the widening price gap, driven by cheaper imported petrol, could disrupt existing market arrangements, potentially challenging the Dangote/MEMAN/DAPPMAN distribution framework and prompting marketers to reassess supply strategies in response to evolving domestic and global price signals.
