Pakistan climbs to 4,124 MWp solar capacity as 155% electricity tariff hike drives mass adoption
Nigeria trails with 385.7 MWp despite $470bn GDP, population, as growth remains donor-driven
By Oredola Adeola
Pakistan, with a population of over 240 million, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of around $375 billion and GDP per capita of $1,365, has increased the share of solar energy in its electricity mix, from 4% in 2021, to over 14% reaching an installed capacity of approximately 4,124 megawatts peak (MWp) as of December 2024, Advisors Reports’ findings has shown.
That country is therefore positioned as the world’s sixth-largest solar market alongside China, India, United State, Germany and Brazil- based on market size, capacity additions, growth potential, and overall industry activity-not just installed capacity.
In contrast, Nigeria with over 220 million people, GDP exceeding $470 billion and GDP per capita of around $835, in the same period corded a modest 385.7 MWp of installed solar capacity, reflecting a slower pace of adoption despite solar photovoltaic (PV).
Further findings by Advisors Reports linked Pakistan’s rapid solar growth to several interrelated factors.
These include a 155% increase in electricity tariffs over three years, which made solar power sources a viable alternative and the most affordable for households and businesses.
That was situation was further compounded with the country’s removal of a 17% sales tax on solar equipment around late 2024 to early 2025, an action which opens the market up for the importation of low-cost raw materials and equipment used in manufacturing solar panels, inverters, and batteries from China.
Pakistan has managed to turn solar energy into a viable and scalable solution to energy insecurity, despite challenges common to many developing countries—such as circular debt, transmission losses, vandalism, and energy theft.
As a result, demand for grid electricity dropped by over 10% during the last fiscal year, as Pakistanis’ power consumers shifted the consumption sources to solar self-generation to avoid inflated tariffs and persistent blackouts.
Records therefore showed that industrial, agricultural, and residential sectors in that country, are leading this transition, spurred by inefficiencies in the state-owned energy system and inconsistent government energy policies.
At the moment, Pakistan is the third-largest importer of Chinese solar panels, having received shipments totaling 13 GigaWatts in the first half of 2024, with projections indicating a total import of 22 GW by year-end, China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) data revealed.
That surge was partly driven by a global glut in Chinese panel production, resulting in oversupply and falling prices that have made solar more accessible in Pakistan.
A recent World Economic Forum (WEF) report highlighted Pakistan’s experience as a model for other developing nations, emphasizing the importance of balancing policy innovation with market adaptation to create sustainable and equitable energy solutions.
Advisors Reports further gathered that the year-on-year growth rate of solar adoption in Pakistan has begun to outpace that of China.
Interestingly, while China focuses more on systematic deployment for grid decarbonization and export-driven manufacturing, Pakistan’s growth is largely grassroots—driven by households and businesses.
On the other side of the spectrum, Nigeria continues to underperform in solar deployment, despite the projection that the country could generate up to 210 (GW) of solar power if just 1% of suitable land and resources were fully utilized.
The country added just 63.5 MWp, bringing its total installed capacity to 385.7 MWp, ranking it fourth in Africa. by the end of 2024, this was charactised by financial, technical, and regulatory constraints.
Data showed that that growth was primarily donor-driven, unlike Pakistan’s more organic business-consumer model.
Advisors Reports gathered that multilateral institutions and donor agencies remain the main catalysts for solar adoption in Nigeria.
For instance, the World Bank and African Development Bank (AfDB), through the Mission 300 initiative, pledged $40 billion to bring electricity access to 300 million Africans by 2030, primarily through mini-grids and solar home systems.
The Development finance institutions (DFIs) accounted for $1.2 billion in climate finance directed at Nigeria, focusing largely on solar PV and climate mitigation in the energy sector.
Africa50, in collaboration with the International Solar Alliance, recently launched a $200 million Africa Solar Facility to support distributed renewable energy initiatives, including in Nigeria.
Notably, private sector participation is also expanding with donor backing.
Nigerian solar firm Arnergy secured $15 million in 2025 from Breakthrough Energy Ventures (founded by Bill Gates) and British International Investment. The company aims to deploy over 12,000 solar systems by 2029 across 35 states.
Despite these efforts, solar deployment in Nigeria remains hampered by high capital costs, lack of financing guarantees, and regulatory uncertainty.
A recent Africa Market Outlook for Solar PV 2025–2028 by the Global Solar Council (GSC), Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI), and GET.invest noted that Africa is on the verge of a solar breakthrough.
The report confirmed that the realization of that potential depends heavily on affordable financing, lower interest rates, currency risk mitigation, and robust policy frameworks.
There are, however, signs of progress, under the Renewed Hope Agenda of the President Bola Tinubu’s administration through Chief Adebayo Adelabu, Power Minister, has implemented key reforms-most notably the removal of fuel subsidies, and strengthened renewable energy policies-that have measurably accelerated Nigeria’s solar market growth.
Under the present administration, solar power capacity grew by approximately 20% annually since 2023, with installed capacity reaching nearly 386 MWp by end-2024 and further expansion projected in 2025.
The Rural Electrification Agency deployed one million standalone solar home systems between 2019 and 2022. Between 2023 and 2024, the agency has deployed an additional 2,631 standalone solar home systems with a capacity of about 160 kWp, alongside 15 solar mini-grids and 18,670 solar streetlights.
While over 1.4 million people have benefitted from sustainable electricity through these programmes, REA is targeted electrifying about 250,000 households through various solar initiatives including home systems, mini-grids, and electric mobility initiatives.
Additionally, Nigeria’s energy ecosystem is being complemented by its lithium potential.
For instance, in Nasarawa State, the country’s largest lithium processing facility handles 3 million metric tons annually.
A new 5 million metric ton plant is expected to be commissioned by July 2025, with another 15 million metric ton facility proposed by investors.
Notably, these lithium factories are independently solar-powered, underscoring a promising intersection of solar power and mineral processing.
Advisors Reports therefore established that for Nigeria to replicate Pakistan’s success, the present administration must prioritize access to affordable financing, invest in technical manpower, and implement consistent, pro-solar policies.
