… Dangote holds 93% market share, as imports shrink to 7%
Oredola Adeola
Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) market in Nigeria is increasingly reliant on domestic refining, as average daily supply from both the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and importers declined by 25.4 million litres per day (ML/D) to 39.5 ML/D in February 2026, down from an average of 64.9 ML/D in January, largely driven by a sharp drop in import volumes by oil marketers.
This is just as imports recorded a decline of 21.8 ML/D, dropping from an average of 24.8 ML/D in January to just 3.0 ML/D in February—representing an approximate 87.9 per cent decrease in inflows.
The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) revealed this in a factsheet on State of the midstream and downstream sector in February 2026, obtained by Advisors Reports.
NMDPRA revealed that Dangote refinery dominated the market in February, with nearly 93% share of average daily petrol supply, while importers account for just over 7%.
The document showed that supply from the Dangote dipped slightly by 3.5 ML/D, declining from 40.1 ML/D in January to 36.6 ML/D in February—representing an approximate 8.7 per cent decrease in output.
Meanwhile the NMDPRA’s document showed that domestic consumption (truck-out) also moderated during the period in view.
Advisors Reports gathered that the average daily petrol consumption declined by 3.3 ML/D to 56.9 ML/D in February from 60.2 ML/D in January.
Despite the overall supply decline, the Dangote refinery maintained strong operational efficiency, achieving an average capacity utilisation rate of 78.13 per cent during the review period.
A supply-demand gap was also recorded in February, as total PMS supply of 39.5 ML/D fell short of consumption, which stood at 56.9 ML/D, signaling possible strain on inventories and downstream distribution channels.
On a year-on-year basis, Nigeria’s average daily PMS supply in February 2026 fell sharply to 39.5 ML/D, down from 52.3 ML/D in February 2025—a decline of 12.8 ML/D, or approximately 24.5 per cent.
This volume also represents the lowest monthly average in the past 12 months, following a previous drop in September 2025 to 39.7 ML/D, which was primarily driven by constrained supply from the Dangote.
