… as Brent crude extends rally to $84.41/bbl on Thursday, approaches $90/bbl
… MEMAN predicts pump price to hit ₦1,100/L by April 2026 if current trends persist
Oredola Adeola
Advisers Reports’ latest monitoring of petroleum products terminals on March 3 and March 4 shows domestic refinery reference prices at Nipco ₦895, Matrix ₦900, Techno ₦890, and Pinnacle ₦880 per litre.
Meanwhile, Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s gantry price for petrol rose slightly to ₦880 per litre from ₦874, positioning it as the most competitively priced domestic supplier.
The Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) had in its Energy Bulletin released by its Competency Centre showed a widening price differential of about ₦64–₦65 per litre emerged between domestic refinery rates and import benchmarks in Nigeria’s petrol market.
According to the Bulletin, Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s gantry price of petrol stood at ₦874 per litre, compared with the landed cost of imported petrol at ₦809.36 per litre at the Nigerian Pipeline and Storage Company (NPSC) New Oil Jetty and ₦809.38 per litre at the Apapa Single Point Mooring (ASPM) jetty in Apapa.
That development was attributed to surging global crude oil prices driven by escalating geopolitical tensions surrounding the US–Israel–Iran conflict, which has pushed Brent crude oil on an upward trajectory from around $70 per barrel at the onset of the war to above $80 per barrel.
Meanwhile, the MEMAN’s data showed that petrol delivery into storage tanks at the Nigerian Petroleum Special Company (NPSC) and Apapa Single Point Mooring (ASPM) Jetties in Apapa showing an average 30-day availability of ₦733.71 per litre.
The data also revealed that the development is expected to push retail pump prices above N900 per litre in the coming days, particularly due to the intensifying US–Israel–Iran conflict.
It emphasised that the increase triggered temporary pauses in sales by several private depots during the weekend, as operators recalibrate their pricing structures to align with the new market realities.
The downstream sector is expected to continue grappling with heightened volatility as global crude prices remain on the rise, with Brent crude peaking at $80.62 per barrel on Tuesday, March 3, and extending its rally to about $84.41 per barrel by Thursday, March 5, amid escalating geopolitical tensions.
MEMAN warned that sustained crude price increases toward the $90 per barrel threshold could exert further pressure on domestic petrol costs.
Under such a scenario, MEMAN projected that the pump prices may approach N1,100 per litre by April 2026 if current trends persist.
The analysis of the market by Advisers Reports showed that while Dangote’s gantry price gives it a domestic competitive edge, cheaper imported petrol could still challenge the refinery’s supply arrangements, prompting marketers to reassess their distribution strategies.
