… as Platts unveils new regional price assessments for West Africa
… new benchmarks cover FOB West Africa (Lekki, Lagos), STS Lomé
Oredola Adeola
Despite the changing petroleum products trade flows driven by new regional refining capacity, particularly the recent commissioning of the Dangote Refinery with a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day (bpd), industry analysts have revealed that West Africa’s refined products market still requires multiple supply sources to ensure resilience.
According to them, while Dangote’s entry is materially reshaping regional product flows, it does not entirely remove the region’s reliance on imports.
They noted that refinery outages will remain a major driver of price movements, while Lomé, the Togolese capital, is increasingly positioning itself as a key marginal supply hub, providing flexible small-clip cargoes and supporting price discovery across West Africa.
This formed a key highlight of a virtual webinar organised on Monday by MEMAN in collaboration with S&P Global Commodity Insights (Platts), themed “Market Fundamentals and Geopolitical Drivers.”
The session featured a safety briefing and opening remarks, followed by technical presentations on middle distillates and gasoline pricing dynamics, an explainer on the ex-Lomé offshore hub, as well as Platts’ new regional price assessments for FOB West Africa and STS Lomé.
Mr. Huub Stokman, MEMAN Chairman, in his remark stated that the session was timely following Nigeria’s move to full fuel price deregulation, adding that rising local refining capacity changes the supply landscape.
He assured that MEMAN will support market transparency, benchmarking and coordinated stakeholder engagement during the transition.
Mr. Gary Clark, Associate Editorial Director, EMEA Clean Refined Products, S&P Global Commodity Insights, in his discussion on Current Supply, Demand, and Pricing Dynamics in Europe and West Africa, noted that Dangote’s ramp up has reshaped regional market flows, thereby retaining much gasoil in West Africa and exporting some jet fuel internationally, which reduces but does not eliminate import dependence.
He emphasised that the refinery’s outages and maintenance can quickly reintroduce import needs and market volatility.
Advisors Reports can confirm that after two earlier outages in April and June, the Dangote Refinery in August 2025 suffered another unplanned shutdown of its Residue Fluid Catalytic Cracker (RFCC) unit, a critical component for gasoline production.
That marked the latest in a string of recurring technical setbacks since the refinery commenced full operations in January 2024.
Clark therefore announced new Platts assessments for West Africa designed to reflect regional trading dynamics as domestic refining capacity expands.
This according to him includes a low sulphur diesel FOB West Africa assessment on Lekki and Lagos basis and an STS low sulphur diesel assessment on a Togo and Lomé basis.
Advisors Reports further gathered that the FOB West Africa assessment covers 20 to 40 kiloton cargoes loading from ports such as Lagos, while the STS Lomé assessment approximates marginal small clip values in the Lomé offshore market that feed coastal and truck distribution.
Platts stated that the assessments are prompt focused on a three to ten day forward loading window.
Swaps strips are drawn over the same loading window and compared against assessed West Africa material to produce FOB differentials, for example FOB WAF versus Mediterranean and FOB WAF versus Northwest Europe.
Mr. Matthew Tracey-Cook – Senior Price Reporter, EMEA Gasoline & West Africa Refined Products, S&P Global Commodity Insights, in his comment on Gasoline outlook, observed that crack spreads have been softer relative to the post COVID and Russia Ukraine period, driven in part by reduced transatlantic arbitrage and lower exports to West Africa following Dangote’s commissioning.
Mr. Tracey-Cook noted a sharp rally in the profit margin between crude oil prices and gasoline prices in August after an FCC outage at Dangote, with implied cracks moving from about thirteen dollars per barrel to above seventeen dollars per barrel.
He noted that the incident highlights how outages at the Dangote Refinery can significantly disrupt Atlantic Basin product balances and trigger market backwardation.
Tracey-Cook further explained that assessing West African trades against a swaps strip reduces noise relative to spot-to-spot differentials and better reflects marginal trade dynamics in the Gulf of Guinea.
The Platts experts further noted that Europe remains a major supplier into many West African markets but direct imports into Nigeria from Europe have declined while cargoes increasingly land in regional hubs such as Lomé and are broken into smaller parcels.
They stated that Lomé hub continues to grow as a flexible marginal sourcing point even as Dangote supplies large truck volumes domestically, so import dependence has shifted rather than disappeared.
The panel emphasised that multiple supply sources and market alternatives remain essential to resilience.
Mrs. Ogechi Nkwoji, MEMAN’s Head, Economic Intelligence Research & Regulation, MEMAN, earlier in her presentation on the topic: Demystifying the Lomé Petroleum Market, described ex-Lomé hub, as a pragmatic offshore trading solution that evolved from onshore bottlenecks and declining domestic refinery performance.
According to her, large cargoes are discharged into floating storage off Togo and sold in smaller 5 to 20 kiloton parcels to regional buyers, chiefly Nigerian marketers.
Nkwoji emphasised that the deep water, security, flexible lot sizes and same day trading capability, makes Lomé hub, an important reference point for price discovery and coastal distribution, and a flexible buffer during onshore disruptions.
